Airlines in a Crisis

The main Low Fares encumbents ( = they with the Lowest Costs) in the European landscape are taking wildly different approaches to the first full winter of the CoVid19 pandemic.  Wizz is seeking opportunities where they appear and quickly moving into markets where the (semi) incumbent is in trouble. Sample in Norway where they have announced and quickly started their first domestic routes and announced even more to come when Norwegian went to the courts for protection. By the time any other seeking opportunities come looking post vaccine, Wizz will already have operated on the routes for more than 6 months. Ryanair on the other hand has spent the CoVid19 crying about different governments actions, and their response to pandemic changes is to kick the toys out of the pram and abandon routes and airports. Exactly as they used to do when an airport tried to introduce new charges. You haven't seen them really anounce an entry into any really new market, just adjusting frequencies in tho...

There are reports that some airlines have been light on aircraft maintenance during the CoVId19 lockdowns. This specially goes for they who have outsourced that maintenance and have done a light touch follow up. Since airfreight is still massively behind some airlines like, EasyJet, have found that parts are hard to come by now when everybody are ramping up their flying and all need the same parts at the same time. The situation isn't helped by that freight and especially airfreight is far behind normal operation. This has led to some airlines having to use their less fuel efficient planes insted of the newer and greener ones. Even if they have extras of the others in stock they just haven't been maintained to the standard required for an immediate return to service. Or even not so immediate since most airlines have had 2 to 3 weeks between announcing its uprated schedule to actually going live with it. It is ironic that planes can't get back in the air because planes ...

The first European airline to fail in the very beginning of CoVid19 was Connect Airways or FlyBe as most like to call it. Was that necessary. From a pure financial standpoint it certainly looked that way. Running constant losses and with owners tired of constantly refilling it with money. I say money because it wasn't really cash but more promises of such. As an airline it had some things going fore it. A good AOC for a multiple of types of aircraft that made it a vendor in a market of its own. Large enough but not a direct threat to the likes of easyJet and Ryanair. And for the network airlines it was more a supplier than a competitor. However for many years it had leaders and management that took it in to many directions spending money on costly rebranding and too many different types of aircrafts. Many thinks it would be better as a regional with the smallest of aircrafts but those kind of routes are better left to even smaller niche players. It could have carved out a mar...

Instead of cancelling Airbus order like Stelios requested easyJet is now deferring the deliveries of the order up to several years into the future. Is this a way of pandering to Stelios wishes without actually being seen to cave in since management did win the shareholder vote on the matter. After all it can't have been pleasant for the management of the airline to have to work against the wishes of a 33% owner. This way they could present it as a bit of a victory emphasizing the retention of the discounts obtained way back in 2013. A bit odd that an even better deal couldn't be obtained this time around but those might be reserved for they who can actually take deliveries of aircrafts now. Good thing also that the delay fit nicely with most airlines forecasts on when the world will return to more normal times. At least that is the timeframe they use when negotiating with staff on t&c conditions. However it is still against Stelios expressed opinion that 200 is the op...

Never mind what Ryanair states in their annual presentations about the cost and price differences of the market. These umbers are usually adjusted for a purpose and often do not reflect all of neither revenue streams nor costs. A quick calculation of the 2019 numbers gives: (All numbers in Euros and per passenger) Company  -  Costs  -  Average Ticket Price Ryanair:  -  51.5  -  59.4 Wizz:  -  60.5  -  69.0 easyJet:  -  70.0  -  74.0 Norwegian:  118.5  -  116.0 So even though Ryanair's comparisons have the right order they do understate what is their average price for a ticket. And the difference between that and Wizz's cost are not that much. If the last grew to what Stelios says is the ideal size of 200 planes they could very possibly fight very competitively with Ryanair on a cost basis, as long as they stick with the concept. Ryanair is upping there's with constantly adding addi...

An airline with less than 100 planes in their fleet are at constant risk of being taken over. A tempting proposal for shareholders knowing the risks associated with airline stocks and therefor suceptible to larger airlines wanting to quell sudden upstarts. More than 200 planes and you are becoming a real threat and can no longer hide your size. Unions beome focused and all of a sudden you are coming to the top of size statistics and a sharpened view from the established. Around 200 you are to large for a swept under the carpet buy out and can continue to play the I'm still catching up game without another airline going after every route you try. You are also still a manageable size where a small top managmenet team can have full control on all aspects and a CEO can get into the details and reach out to everyone where necessary. Ryanair have certainly not succeded profit wise with their expnsion. Their profit at 400 was hardly 20% more than when they had 200 planes. And in the m...

Is Easyjet well served by getting on the wrong side of a 30% shareholder in difficult times. Is the continued concentration on growth for the benefit of the shareholders that take all the risk, or for increasing managements incentive packages. There are enough samples of corporate greed where top management walks away with millions even though the results tanks and staff ends up getting laid off. Easyjet management says an outside independent have looked at its dealings with Airbus and found nothing untoward. An independent company is only as independent as the one that pays their bill want them to be. Self-hiring an "independent" is a well known way of getting in ahead of an investigation instigated by somebody else.I am not saying anything will be hung on the current management of Easyjet, but smaybe something will stick on Airbus that could be used for negating the contract without penalties. Even more likely since they have already settled something similar. Easyjet ma...