Airlines in a Crisis

The airline business has always been a cyclical roller coaster of ups and down and its sesoned participants would do well in remembering that after 7 fat years comes 7 meagre ones, not always on that schedule. How you handle it is different from country to country and sometimes from company to company.  American airlines sway from one crisis to the next paying out all they cane to management, share- and other stakeholders in the good times. Always relying on that their government will see them as critical infrastructure and always bail them out. Privatise profits and socialise losses. The top management of Ryanair on the other hand remembers 9/11 very well and have ever since insisted on holding on to as much cash and building up as much equity in the company as possible. They are a large company in a small and not very rich economy so they know they have to handle any coming crisis on their own.  Norwegian fell into it because their current top management have minimal experie...

When it comes to utilizing the constantly changing nature of the CoVid19 crisis travel advices from diverce governments, startup airlines have a unique opportunity to take advantage. Where others are large and slow you will be small and flexible. As some pairings close others opens up. People are just booking short time out anyway so you don't have to publish a 6 month schedule. Many airlines take a week or 2 to react to government advisory changes. You should have it ready for booking by tomorrow. In addition most customer charter rules are temporarily suspended or not enforced so a 2 or even 1 week cancelling policy should be envoked. Cancel, refund and move your resources to a different route. As a new airline you are not lumbered with bookings done months ago that you want to fly to avoid refunding because you have spent the cash from them on paying for unused planes and other fixed costs.

Let's take som quick math to Ryanair's O'Leary's claims that middle seat free is unsustainable. According to the Ryanair results presentation their average fare is 37 euro. Add 50% and it becomes 55.5 Still below Easyjet's current of 59 according to the same presentation. Will an extra 18 euro 50 cents really stop people from flying if it means they could be safer from viruses. It seems more of a pshycological problem for top brass rather than for any real economic reason, that airlines think they should be excempt from the physical distancing that every other business have to put up with. Some will always persist on squezing the last of capacity out of both materiel and staff, even at the cost of suffering, for others. The only thing a temporry 50% rise in ticket prices put an end to is O'Leary's plans about releasing a rush of Low Fares to get further market share from competitors, as long as they don't do just the same with borrowed money. I am su...