Airlines in a Crisis

An actual Chapter 11 because it was done in the US so they could continue flying with their subsidiaries and operate their bonus program. The cash situation in SAS must have been worse than previously announced because they have put all cabin crew on leave and are already scrambling to find a loan of 700 million dollars to help them through the reconstruction process. This must mean that most of the earlier announced 8 billion krona cash available was in reality prepayments from customers that is now running out fast as repayments for cancelled flights, and compensation because the non-flying wheren't notified 14 days in advance. How company management can prefer this process to a slower but still fully flying cost saving exercise is baffling. Or have they looked to much to what happened with Norwegian. Then they have forgotten that the Norwegian process happened in the middle of a pandemic where sources of refinancing where available from many sides and leasing companies where des

Norse Atlantic Airways is the new transatalantic then true intercontinental airline where the founder of Norwegian Kjos and his partner Kise are involved.  It might be targeting Low Fares and according to its founder they have learnt the lesson that that have to be combined with Low Cost. Maybe and maybe not. They are going for ex Norwegian 787's wih the same seat configuration. That might save on leasing cost, what they are planning of fundraising do not equal to outright plane purchases, but it is 2 cabin classes again and that is not true Low Cost.  Add in the freight, which have proven crucial and resilient but is still a distraction but you migth as well since 30min turnarounds are out the window, and a new Low Cost concept needs to be invented. With usual pain for first movers, maybe a bit less for what will now be a second mover. Norway might be where this airline will be founded and somewhat hq'd but if they have learnt their lessons from the adventures with Norwegian t

With Norwegian gone from the Scandinavian long haul market, including its transatlantic connectivity through Gatwick, there should be growth opportunities for SAS. One will assume long haul will come strongly back if not end of 2021 so at least in 2022. And at least in the northern hemisphere markets will be full back by summer 2022. This gives opportunities for they who early prepares after the permanent exit of some airlines from long haul during the pandemic. SAS should now prepare for what it will do when this market returns. Now is when cheap(ish) deals for long haul aircraft can be made for they with a plan, and guts. Insted of going for a strategy of highest prices retrievable with the short term lowering of capacity, one should seriously consider if more profit can't be obtained by increasing ones own capcity, therebye lowering prices slightly. For a payback in the form of increase in demand. In addition to avoid letting potential passengers leak to competitors stuffed with

The rescue plan leeks seem to be pretty consistant on that the future of Norwegian will contain shorthaul within  and to/from the Scandinavian market. Question is what about 787 LH. Norwegian seem to historically have used a small profit margin created from its original and core business of the domestic and Scandinavian plus sun hollidays for same market, to subsidise an expansion into transcontinental including transatlantic flights. Without the latter beeing documented as anything else than a loss making business. Resulting in the whole company using a lot of red ink for its accounts. There is a possibility for LH low fares business but one have to have the discipline for low cost operations that must go with it. The 787 proved a problematic choice for the company and maybe now one of the never narrowbody planes with la larger range would be a better option. Partially because the Scandinavian to sample US market is very small even from the capital cities, and most routes gain by havi

A single airline could completely dominate a reopened Rygge airport. Think all the slots just for itself with the whole airport designed around its own needs. Including passenger sluicing and offices. All available relatively reasonable since its closed at the moment with no reopening in site without an  anchor airline. It could certainly become a hub and an easy & smooth airport to connect through. We are thinking a transatlantic hub with incoming connections plus feeding and drawing from the Oslo east and Swedish market. Remember Oslo east is seen as the lesser part of Oslo with a lot of suburban somewhat high rise sprawl and even more OBOS. The last is the social way of financing your housing needs where only part of the loan is yours and part is a joint with the other apartment owners. This for they who don't have the financial strength to obtain the full mortgage themselves. Parking could be made much cheaper at Rygge than OSL where prices are on the expensive side and

Over time Norwegian should be split in 2 units under an umbrella managments to purify the single aircraft type principe of a true Low Cost airline. There can be no profitable Low Fares without Low Costs. The short haul (NSH) 737 part should concentratte on servinf te scandi/nordic market where it can capitalize on its namerecognition and customer belongingness. with additional routes from there to sun destinations and other Norwegian long haul hubs. The long haul (NSL) 787 part should be based elshewhere like Dublin or London Gatwick. Together with overall management of both companies. From here it would become the only really independent Low Fares intercontinental airline. All others are just offspring of full service airlines where the core of the company are not really in it 100%. Both parts should initially during the pandemic offer a Sanitized class and a Couldn't Care Less class (see other post) to appeal to the broadest market and get more flying. As time goes on they

What is the plan for the lenders new shareholdings in Norwegian. Why did they not just take the planes back and finished with it. A loss is a loss and better be over and done with it and move on. Are they just leaving the Dreamliners there hoping the Norwegian government through unsecured loans to Norwegian will pay for maintenance and parking for them until the market returns. Then take them back only at such a time when existing or new airlines make signals to move on the Transcontintal markets Norwegian left behind. Unless Norwegian's management in the near future quickly turns around and show they have a plan for all those aircrafts one would assume the planes real owners will take them back. In the meantime they can always make some extra cash by selling the billions of new Norwegian shares to upset norwegians. On the other hand would they not be better off getting in a new management with a vision for the company. A vision for how planes could be utilized whatever it take

Norwegian worked up a good brand in Low Fares transatlantic and to parts of Asia. Now when they are retracting to the Norway and Scandinavia market, plus probably something to bring those customers to some sun like Spain, Italy, France and similar, it leaves a market, new fleet and crews ready for easy prickings for the right operator. London Gatwick could be losing some of its main operators on the transatlantic market with Virgin shrinking and BA retrenching to Heathrow. So there is an opportunity for a partial ready made market to be exploited when traffic returns. And chances of a head start for they willing to dip a toe in the water, with the potential of real returns. Many have tried and failed in Europe-US low fares. Few had such a chance that now exists to make it also a true Low Cost. Utilizing the worked up brand of Norwegian could give an instant ready supply of potential passengers. Combine that with a great opportunity for exceptional deals on leases, low price on fuel