Airlines in a Crisis

Helpfull for airline pricing teams, actually just one person needed now, FareAutoCalc is an Android app that helps you set prices to rech profit on all your routes.  In its simplest form you enter the costs per flight, number of seats, how many fare classes (different price levels) you would like and at what load in percent you want to break even. Then it calculates the prices for each fareclass and the number of seats in same. You can manually enter the price rise scale for how much in percent you want the fare to rise between each fare clas. Or the app can do this for you using an even step in percent scale. It also has a Cost Detail page where you can enter detailed costs. This allows you to enter a number of set costs that could be the same for all flights, and some variable costs that varies by example flight distance. In principle its for a low cost carrier that don't have different seat classses and only differs in fare classes with different price levels where the price go...

There is the overambitious expansion and desire to play in the big league with big orders for brand new planes, of several different types no less. But others have gone big and succeeded, but maybe not so much in the airline industry that is plagued with protection from your creditors and financial rescues. The transition from the enthusiastic well liked entrepenour to the next CEO is important for most companies. It usually happens because the founder have got out of his depth, or simple become to old. In Norwegian Kjos flew a bit too close to the sun . There is also that the airline was built on a belief of continually better market conditions and no savings for a rainy day. So did they choose an individual with a lot of airline experience and a lot of usefull contacts that could come in with own ideas and change things around from day 1. Not at all. They chose somebody that first spent 3 months learning before he took the reins. And then speculated for another 3 months on how he cou...

The rescue plan leeks seem to be pretty consistant on that the future of Norwegian will contain shorthaul within  and to/from the Scandinavian market. Question is what about 787 LH. Norwegian seem to historically have used a small profit margin created from its original and core business of the domestic and Scandinavian plus sun hollidays for same market, to subsidise an expansion into transcontinental including transatlantic flights. Without the latter beeing documented as anything else than a loss making business. Resulting in the whole company using a lot of red ink for its accounts. There is a possibility for LH low fares business but one have to have the discipline for low cost operations that must go with it. The 787 proved a problematic choice for the company and maybe now one of the never narrowbody planes with la larger range would be a better option. Partially because the Scandinavian to sample US market is very small even from the capital cities, and most routes gain by ...

Norwegian have today presented a new plan for how they dream the company can be rescued.  Lets talk about the positives first. They are planning to do a reverse share split by a factor of 100 from over 3 billion to round 30 million. There have been comments that sees shares only worth some norwegian øre (100'th of a Norwegian Krone (nkr)) as signs of a company in distress and leading to a share price easily manipulated = penny stocks. For any hope for the future they need to be able to have shares with an exchange worth of whole nkr's. Theis leads us to the question wether there are enough small investors in Norway, and maybe other Scandinavian countries with enough cash to waste to swallow up a new issue of 4 billion nkr of even more new shares whose value could be lost nearly before they are isued. After all they say straight out that they hope the shareholders will continue to support them for even further future recapitalizations. If there are that many willing to throw eve...

  If the Wizz air chief is right in that CoVid19 will lead to a permanently reduced airline passenger market combined with more direct flights and much less hub and spoke, then the LoCo's are going for the wrong aircraft with their demand for more and more seats per aircraft. More direct routes and less demand should mean a market of planes with less seats each to avoid the booking confusion of trice weekly flights instead of daily. After all sample Ryanair made their lo-co start with 130 seat planes, then 186 seat and soon they will be up to 200 and then 220 with an extra cabincrew. Larger planes and still just 2 pilots in them might lower costs per seat but if they have to keep fire-selling the seats could it decrease profit per planeload.

Ryanair has done it again. Gone and dwcided that their hunt for profit is more important than peoples health and the world economy and taken the Irish government to court on a technicality in their handling of the CoVid19 pandemic emergency. It just show what type of selfcentered individuals runs Ryanair, and BA. They can really be compared with the landlords of old that sent their tenants away on coffin ships so they could exploit the land left behind for profit. Doesn't help that they try to pack it in with concerns about clarity or the freedom of the individual or as humanitarian and sympathetic. These are the same people that will only take pandemic precautions if it doesn't cost their own company anything. Others should provide the masks. Airports should do and pay for the temperature checks. Social distancing is to difficult a.s.o. And pushing the line that no advice is better than  unclear advice is just b****cks. Still waiting for what O'Leary's, and Wilson...

How to set the pricing strategy for a profitable airline. You start with the costs. It is important to know both the set and variable costs for each leg (city pair) you would potentially fly.  Include everything like cost of plane, crew, maintenance, fuel and taxes. Plus an ad on for other costs like managment, admin and marketing. Hence lowering the costs is alpha and omega for creating a competititive airline that is also profitable. Ceate a pricing strategy fpr eah route that gives you a profit at 80% capacity, or lower if you think you can get away with it in the market. Create several steps in the pricing ladder so you have a low starting price for marketing purposes and the fuller the plane the more you get in. Now you have your base price model. Add on a percentage premium for more poular times of the week, or of the day, and if there are any events scheduled for that market. Add also on a percentage for any premium services you offer, example a 50% add on for middle s...

An airline with less than 100 planes in their fleet are at constant risk of being taken over. A tempting proposal for shareholders knowing the risks associated with airline stocks and therefor suceptible to larger airlines wanting to quell sudden upstarts. More than 200 planes and you are becoming a real threat and can no longer hide your size. Unions beome focused and all of a sudden you are coming to the top of size statistics and a sharpened view from the established. Around 200 you are to large for a swept under the carpet buy out and can continue to play the I'm still catching up game without another airline going after every route you try. You are also still a manageable size where a small top managmenet team can have full control on all aspects and a CEO can get into the details and reach out to everyone where necessary. Ryanair have certainly not succeded profit wise with their expnsion. Their profit at 400 was hardly 20% more than when they had 200 planes. And in the m...

If you are ok on a plane because of the excange rate and filtlering capacity of its air circulation system, should pubs be ok to stuff them in at full capacity as long as they install Hepa filters in their aircondition and turn it up to the same rate as on a plane. What about supermarkets, shops and hairdressers. Would the corona world be able to go back to normal . Well they could according to IATA. The argument from there and pushed by many airline chiefs is that due to the advanced airconditioning and the filtering capacity of the Hepa filters airlines hould be excempt from the physical distancing required on al other business premises. That and for economical reasons off course that they can't make as much profit if their capacity is reduced due to having middle seats blocked off. But the economical argument against social distancing is no different for any other type of business on the planet.

Social distancing must be practiced everywhere els ein corona times, why not on airlines. No business think physical distancing is good for profit but most have to accept it asa necessity in a hopefully temporary new reality. Airline management though seem to find the whole concept difficult. Some of them are so used just for profit to stuff their customers in to the absolute legal limit and without comforts that they don't. Safety is just because accidents are bad for business. In a differnt time they would be landlords sending their tenants on coffinships to America so they could utilize the vacated land better. Problem with that way of thinking arise when low-low prices are no longer the be all and end all for if people want to fly or not. In dangerous times people become price unelastic and will pay what it costs if they absolutely have to fly. And if not necessary they won't no matter how cheap it is. This concept seeems to escape many of todays airline chiefs. Even thoug...