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Norwegian continues massaging its numbers

Latest they accounted as income nearly 500 million nkr worth of unused and expired bonus points they had booked as expenses when customers earned them before the pandemic and before old Norwegian went bust. This comes in addition to the couple of billion nkr of future discounts Boeing gave them as repatriation for earlier problems old Norwegian had with the Boeing planes. New Norwegian also booked this in as income for 2022. In quarter 4 with twice as much income as the year before they managed to only loose about the same as the year before. Is that good, bad, nah or neither. It does point to that they still have problem with growing in a profitable way. Then we come to the the 7,8 billion nkr they say they have in cash. How much of this is unearned payments from future customers. The current CEO Karlsen used to count that as cash when he was just chief of finance in old Norwegian. That went bad in 2020 when they couldn't fly those customers, they all wanted refunds and no new mon

Was the demise of Flyr inevitable

Of course not. Flyr could have been saved at many stages trough its short life. By getting in top management that new what to concentrate on and what was not important during startup. And who had experience in which functions are needed and how many are needed in each function at each stage of fleet expansion. The main blame lies with the Chairman who got in the wrong people to lead the company. People without any experience from the startup and/or growth of a profitable airline. Even though they are few and far between in Norway. First a spender that let themselves be blended by the role, went for to many fripperies and lured into to rapid sudden expansion and associated expences when there where at that stage not enough passengers to pay for it.  Then replacing that ceo with a person that had been there and had influence on the process the whole time and think that would make a difference. A person that stuck to the plan that hadn't worked so far, just with a few added token savi

SAS tries more of the same instead of innovation

SAS new route announcements seems to be more of the same. More flights from airports in Sweden to the US. More airports around New York. They have added flights from Gothenburg and Jylland which is ok I guess since the hop via Arlanda or Copenhagen is a bit of an iritation. Specially with the troubles due to staffing Arlanda had last summer. They have added JFK in addition to Newark for New York. Big wup regarding destination. And more costs for SAS to a more expensive airport. Unless they would want to become just a longhaul and swedish connections airline they should rather go for more direct connecting within Europe. SAS closed a lot of them during the pandemic and they don't seem to be coming back. There are now no diret SAS Oslo to Dublin flights. That is no direct connection between a Scandinavian capital city and another capital city in Europe.  And there is still no direct flight whatsoever between Dublin and Trondheim. Connecting via Copenhagen or Arlanda will cost you a w

Norwegian increasing rate of expansion, again

Norwegian is stacking up with even more planes for the summer months taking on Flyr's 6 737-ExMax that will probably be parked again for next winter.  Last September Norwegian flew 1.9 million passengers with their planes. In January they flew 1.1 million with the same fleet and with a fill of nearly the ssame as in September. That means they winter parked about 40% of their fleet and/or possibly some of the left over capacity was used for flying longer routes. And now they are taking on even more planes that most likely also will be parked when winter again arrives. The litle drip Norwegian get of passengers from the demise of Flyr will be almost unnoticable. Not either helped by that 3/4 of the Flyr fleet was parked anyway. 186 seat planes are to large for high frequency trafic in and around Norway for 80% of the year. And if you have less than 100 planes you should not park more than max 10% of them during low-season.. Lets hope that Norwegian drop some of their older 737-800 wh

Flyr aftermath

The cleanup after Flyr has brought to the front a number of ways the airline wasted its investors money. A number of staff had fancifull titles whcih point to an overflow of staff that wasn't completely necessary for a small startup company. Lots of VP's under the Chief level. Maybe some of the urge to comit to more planes was due to an overhiring of well titled staff that needed someone to manage which could only be justified by becoming a larger airline.  Where the ex-Norwegian managmenet building the backoffice of the new airline Flyr based on what the much larger airline Norwegian had. An airline that also went under unable to manage its debt or comitments, before being resurrected. A plane needs sa certain amount of pilots and cabinstaff to fly a certain schedule. It is the backoffice saving are to be had. Just as many staff in the back as flying staff seems excessive. Specially when one knows large parts of its ground handling and maintenance were outsourced A lot of effo

Flyr collapsed into administration with no chance of a comeback

The extra cash burn to prepare for the leases did indeed end Flyr. Instead of doing what they could to make money immediately they put theit hope in a deal that was to bring income in a summer they never reached. The 250 million nkr they got in in new finances last autumn should have been seen as a possible last gasp for the company. Specially since its founder and chairman Braathen said that that was the last 10 million he would bring to the table. That was a signal the company should have known would make future planned founding rounds difficult. Instead of seeing it as a last chance and doing something radically different they continued as before with an internal promotion to CEO that gave none whatsoever rise in share price. A bit of saving where negated by extra spending months before any potential wet lease income would appear in the accounts. A desperate ploy to sell futures to the market that did not appease shareolders for the shareprice to go above the crucial 1 norwegian øre

The Flyr wet leases where not the saviour but possibly what breakes it

Flyr has had extra costs over the winter to prepare for possible wet leases of halve it's fleet of 12 aircrafts. They where desperate for these as they tought the news of them would bring the share price over 1 norwegian øre (0.001 Euro) so they could get some more financing according to a desperate plan. However the deal inclided paying for preparation cost up front. Money Flyr didn't have the finances for. They should relly not have gone for any wet leasing that didn't include at least a 10% payment up front and the rest of the money for each flight paid at least 1 week before it took place. After all the charter companies customers pays it all up front. Another tell tale sign of poor management is that none of the 12 planes actually have any flights scheduled for tomorrow Tuesday 31/1-2023. So we are now awaiting whether they will still be in the skies on Wednesday. A poor sign is also that on the Oslo - Trondheim route, that has a total air-passenger trafic comparable w

Flyr spreading on too many thin legs

Instead of building a solid own brand they are going for many different quick fixes.  First it was increassing its distribution by adding third parties ticket sellers to their sales channel. The latest is an increased concentration on wet leases to charter companies.  Flyr only have 12 planes and this reduces their ability to get own upfront sales and add additional sales like car hire and accomodation.  It's all about getting the money in early. With own sales you can get the money in months sin advance. With third parties and wet leases you most likely get the payment after the fact. Meaning you will have upfront costs instead of upfront payments and Flyr is not in a financial position to take on that. While wet leases to charter companies can seem like a predictable income stream, they also comes with potential for great risks. There have been a number of charter companies getting into financial trouble in the later years. And quite a few have gone under leaving a lot of unpaid

The substantial risk taking of Norwegian management is confirmed by 700 million outstanding CO2 costs not budgeted for

Not only do the norwegian state demand 400 million in penalties for lack of CO2 quotas handed over for 2020. They are also demanding the handing over of an estimated 300 million worth of CO2 quotas. That is a nkr 700 million demand against only 15 million set off in the accounts of  the airline Norwegian to cover it. With such a large disputed demand against the airline, disputed because the airline itself thought this demand disappeared in the financial reconstruction of the airline 2 years ago, it is strange based on a very thin result they would commit to so much expansion. And even stranger that leasing companies would agree to such an increased risk based on the history of the airline. Not only is it a substantial financial risk but it will also tie up mangement in court and indecision at a time when they should be operationally rebuilding the airline. That is not the time to plan for a rapid 50% expansion which is bound not to only take massive resources. That many new routes cou

Norwegian is taking risks again by rapid expansion

The CEO of Norwegian announced that they will take on an extra 30 planes closing in on 100 planes in the coming year. In addition to the planes they commited to after the restitution deal with Boeing, which one could have hoped would be used for aircraft replacements rather than even more expansion. The company is taking high risks based on only 1 summer season and 1 autumn season of positive results. 2 seasons where their Scandinavian competitors where in trouble and therefore unable to compete much. SAS with their strikes and Chaper 11 and Flyr running out of cash to such an extent that their winter program runs only 4 out of the 12 planes they are paying leases for.  That is a weak base for saying the market is so good that one should increase ones fleet with 50% in the short term. Growth costs and they'll be trying to find extra markets at a time when both SAS and Flyr could be doing the same.That do not bode well for a continued positive result for Norwegian. Question is can t

Flyr managed to only keep 4 of 12 planes in the air for December with only 52k passengers in total

They should have made 8 trips a day and 30 days times 8 186 seat planes at average 80% fill gives 286k passengers or 36k per plane. Even just 4 planes flying 4 legs a day gives 71k passengers. 52k passengers gives about 12 legs per day for the whole fleet. What Flyr have manged is moving barely enough passengeers to justify a 2 shift working day. Remember the longest they are flying should be covered for even a return trip in 1 pilot shift with time to spare. Yield per passenger kilometer for Flyr might be up but now it is for the most parts relatively long distances like Norway to the Med. And that means they missed out on most of the domesting christmas traffic in Norway and also within Scandinavia. We also can calculate that even though yield is up per passenger km, it is only with 15-20%. And that from a state where Flyr was only taking in halve as much as they where using. We also now know that most domestic flights in the entire norwegian domestic markets where sold out the 2 wee

Flyr blocking potential customers from many countries

How can an airline that claims to be international decide not to sell seats to parts of their market based on the nationality of the potential customer phone number. Flyr have made it extra difficult for people to register for their app or on their website. I am sick of telling them which pictures have dolphins or confirming I'm a human just to come to a page where they want to send a code to my phone number. And even though Ireland shows up in the list no code ever arrives. One wonders how many other countries in Europe or indeed the world this is the case for. Flyr is very friendly with Vipps, a Norwegian payment service, and Vipps is an upshot of the norwegian bank DNB. I have been in contact with DNB and they confirm they don't send such messages to Ireland and one is therefore inclined to think Flyr uses their service for this.  One thing is to list countries where you don't actually provide the service. Something else entirely is that the only alternative is to regist

Flyr changes CEO due to endemic financial problems

Pandemic started norwegian airline Flyr had a quick change of CEO yesterday as original CEO Tonje Wikstrøm Frislid surprisingly quit and was replaced by another ex-Norwegian Brede Huser previously CFO of Flyr. Flyr has had a torrid time financially this autumn after commiting to more planes and brand new ones to that, last January. Planes they haven't been able to fill or wetlease out this winter, and no summer profit to boot. They are down to only flying 6 of the 12 planes in the fleet, laying off a number of pilots and other staff.. A failed recapitalisation replaced by a speculative investor lead one, with billions of shares at share price 0.01 nkr, didn't help. Share price has fallen to a fraction of even that leaving litle hope of success for future planned capital repairs. Management mostly consisting of ex-Norwegian leaders laid of during the pandemic and reconstruction of that airline. Speculation is they won't be able to handle a nkr 100 million CO2 tax due to the

Despite Werf's optimism SAS continue to post disappointing numbers

SAS monthly traffic numbers for August show low utilization of fleet and no growth. Werf says he see positive results in forward bookings but don't verify it with any numbers. And it certainly don't show in the publicised actual traffic numbers. SAS should say something monthly about freight because that is one of the things that diffferentiate it from its Scandinavian competition and other European low costs. The freight market has been booming but SAS is consistently keeping mum about it. Since they went into Chapter11 I assume they haven't been  coining it from freight and instead have missed out on this massive opportunity. Despite me pushing it for 2 years now in both articles and comments. The announcement of reducing the offer on SAS Plus to a single food item and a single drink also do not point to a future of an upmarket offer for passengers either. The inevitable slimming down of its fleet will lower its stance as a netwrok airline and without it's real premiu

As assumed and notified lead the pilot strike in SAS to that the company applied for Chapter 11

An actual Chapter 11 because it was done in the US so they could continue flying with their subsidiaries and operate their bonus program. The cash situation in SAS must have been worse than previously announced because they have put all cabin crew on leave and are already scrambling to find a loan of 700 million dollars to help them through the reconstruction process. This must mean that most of the earlier announced 8 billion krona cash available was in reality prepayments from customers that is now running out fast as repayments for cancelled flights, and compensation because the non-flying wheren't notified 14 days in advance. How company management can prefer this process to a slower but still fully flying cost saving exercise is baffling. Or have they looked to much to what happened with Norwegian. Then they have forgotten that the Norwegian process happened in the middle of a pandemic where sources of refinancing where available from many sides and leasing companies where des

After several days of extended deadlines the 900 pilots of mainline SAS is on strike

SAS Forward plan is not going well. The savings they where to get from the pilots was just to big a hill to climb for the unions. Not only wouldn't SAS hire back direct 450 pilots let go under the pandemic. The company tried the ruse with som irish underling companies to hire further pilots on new contracts far from scandinavian union influence. A move that didn't work for Norwegian and now has ended in a total 3 country pilot strike for SAS. Even the last weeks of potential strike has probably brought new bookings down to near 0 because both sides have all the way talked about potential bankruptcy. And now when tens of thousands hollidaymakers every day is looking for alternatives in an already overfull market the SAS reliability it depended on for its necesseraly slightly premium prices is in the dumps. This is a case where all press is not good press. Wonder how Werf got on in negotiations between swedish, danish and norwegian dealbrokers, unionreps and SAS mgmt mainly repre

Are SAS top brass focusing on the right stuff during a passenger depressed cycle

SAS should as soon as Omicron rumours started to spread been back to seeing how Cargo could save the winter.  But as usual it is all about passengers in their presentations. In the last reported quarter their cargo income rose more than their charter income went down. That is significant. But since they are not highlighting it in their presentations one would assume its not either on top of the mind of their top brass.  Cargo operations is where SAS has a competitive advantage over their Scandinavian, mainly Norwegian, competitors like Norwegian and Flyr. Either of those have any.  Question is did SAS hire a CEO with the right background to get them through a pandemic that could be severe for as long as the post war econmics. Specially combined with litle abaiting environmental pressure, where any suggestion of governmental supports for the sector immediately meat strong opposition from parties that call themselves green. Or did they go for the avaiable CEO that was most likely to get

Norwegian is still not an airline for consolidation and playing it safe for profit

Gei Karlsen, the CEO of Norwegian, learnt his airline craft during a wild expansion and is now looking to recreate that. Just before he announce a 17 mill euro profit for the summer season 2021, he announce 17 more planes for the fleet. At least he didn't pay extra to get the ExMax, for now but did say that that was an option for the future. He is also going to park a large part of the fleet during the winter months and is negotiating hard with the unions for some solution on what to do with the flying crews during that period. Will it be a long vacation or will it be halve the hours for everybody. The need to keep pilots current may play in here. But he didn't stop there. They day after the results he is hinting to that he want to expand further and think Norwegian can handle a fleet of 80 aircraft with the administrative staff they already have on board today. The parking will be helped financiall by some power by the hour deals for the winter season but maintenance will stil

Has Ryanair reached its zenith or does O'Leary have doubt about that the ExMax is the future

He recently announced that he had plenty of time before any further 737 orders where forthcoming saying that another world shock disruption would have to come first so he could again get preferential pricing. The ExMax was never such a gamechanger that Ryanair has been spreading about. 10% more seats than the 737-800 and slightly more effective engines do not give enough green credentials that it impresses any politician when everybody is dreaming about electric planes. And for Ryanair shareholders its just a few percentage points more potential profit for an increasingly short timeframe until something more drastically have to happen about the future of flying. Unless transport of people by air is to go into a permanent decline at the hands of the climate change brigade. It could also be that Ryanair has reached the long touted optimum sice of aircrafts, round 200. They are dividing into not only more marketing names but operations to. Or that the current top management have run out o

CoVid19, can todays soft society live with it if we have to or will 2019 levels never reappear

Heard immunity and a reduction in inection was supposed to happen at 60% infection/vaccination. Now some countries are there but infection rates continue to rise.  New scenario; We need to be at 90% vaccination rate because the vaccines are at best 90% effective and with the latest virus version only 30% after first dose. And not at all in some that are immuno compromised. This could drag on. When 90% won't do it they will come with the 3'rd injection and what then. Will there be a 4'th and a 5'th and then annual boosters. This is the problem when there is no plan B as an alternative to vaccination. Or maybe vaccination was plan B and a plan C is just to much for politicians to think about.  At some stage we will have to live, or die, with the CoVid19 virus. It's a cold virus just like the 4 others that we have lived with for at least a hundred years. It's just we weren't that well informed when each of them first came around and killed left right and center

Can Karlsen survive as head of Norwegian

Or rather can he survive without giving up his 11 million bonus. Or should the question be, will he, since it could take him 2 years to make it back. Question is how much does he want to be CEO or is it just the money that drives him. There is surely another company he could rescue from the brink through financial wizardry. Schram, the former CEO of Norwegian lasted 18 months. More because ofthe support of a weak board with litle shareholder backing but at the same time without any shareholder unity or even a strong such. And a chairman without much airline background that maybe of that reason picked a CEO without any at all. As soon as kind of new strong shareholders came in and the chairman that picked him for the CEO role was out, so was he. But is Karlsen what Norwegian needs now. When he came in as CFO he either had any airline background but was a part of the Fredriksen sphere. Fredriksen is again a large shareholder in Norwegian but the time for finanzial wizardry might be vanin

SAS made their choice; More of the same

They picked a non scandinavian person with airline CEO experience and a tiny localisation excuse of having worked in Stockholm but not for a scandinavian company. At least Anko have experience in how to try to refinance airlines that in reality are bust. Even though he is leaving one n the midle of a chapter 11 equivalent.  He is supposed to be on good term with pilots but if that was won by giving in to much in negotiations is another question, see previous paragraph. As a bonus for the board he knows how to wrangle millions out of a bust company for himself and his nearest, while showing lover employees the door, and one would asume the board will think some of that some will say ill gotten gain will fall on them. Wouldn't see im on the barricades demanding that top managment and board stand by their employees in solidarity and take an equivalent pacut inn times of need. But aside from supporting  the culture of greed, a well liked trait by many in the upper echelons of business,

The boards choice of CEO decides what kind the airline will be in the future

The board of SAS a traditional networks airline with a service, is about to pick a new CEO and thereby indirectly deciding on what kind of airline they want the company to be in the future.  Al Baker the boss of Qatar airways wich is a 35% investor in IAG the parentcompany of BA commented in an article in the Sunday Times yesterday that the management of BA under Cruz leadership lost sight of what made BA. It became a penny pinching airline that where selling food instead of serving food. Is that what SAS owners wants with their airline. A low fares competitor that instead of competing with route network, connections and non-quareling service sees price as their most important factor. In that case they will get plenty of competition in the Scandinavian market with Wizz, Norwegian, Ryanair and newcomers Flyr and long haul Norse all ready for a race to the bottom. However I doubt all Scandinavians look only to price when it comes to picking their mode of air travel. Plenty of people with

For management how important is a grasp of the local language and culture

Can a scandinavian company in unrest be led successfully by a person who has no grasp of any scandinavian language.  Have often witnessed how badly communication in english goes between two people who's mother tongue is not english. This is why outsourcing support for english to India and similar places often go awry. It works as slong as one of the two in a communication are native english speaking. But if they both are not, miscommunications flourish. And that is even when one of them are from India. A country where many schools has english as the primary language, but its indian english. These problems get better with time. If one moves to a pure english speaking country after several years, the problem can be overcome when oneself gain the ability and confidence to internally correct what the other person is saying.   The problem remains though if one goes to a contry like Sweden and expect all communication to happen in english. Even a press release for an international compan

SAS future is based on minimum 50% of pre pandemic passenger traffic already this summer

If SAS is to reach that target they'll better quickly get a new CEO in that brim full of ideas can land running. We need to see skidmarks just like a plane. The cash of the company have in the last quarter reduced with more than halve. And their chances of borrowing more is not getting any better with Moody downgrading them from B3 to Caa1 and hints to an even more negative future.  Worse is they are expecting 20% in April and 30% in May/June. That can be difficult if one compares to last year when Europe didn't really open up before July. Add in the uncertain vaccine supplies and this summer could be a complete wash out. Notice all vaccine forecasts says that most is going to happen in the last month. That is a recipe for disapointment. There is still much to be said for freight. If passenger volumes is only going to be 50% that is a lot of missing belly capacity transcontinentally, and europe wide. Most international post is still at less than halve the speed it was pre-covid

It might be named Norse but that's not where they will be flying

Norse Atlantic Airways is the new transatalantic then true intercontinental airline where the founder of Norwegian Kjos and his partner Kise are involved.  It might be targeting Low Fares and according to its founder they have learnt the lesson that that have to be combined with Low Cost. Maybe and maybe not. They are going for ex Norwegian 787's wih the same seat configuration. That might save on leasing cost, what they are planning of fundraising do not equal to outright plane purchases, but it is 2 cabin classes again and that is not true Low Cost.  Add in the freight, which have proven crucial and resilient but is still a distraction but you migth as well since 30min turnarounds are out the window, and a new Low Cost concept needs to be invented. With usual pain for first movers, maybe a bit less for what will now be a second mover. Norway might be where this airline will be founded and somewhat hq'd but if they have learnt their lessons from the adventures with Norwegian t

Airlines should maximise income now instead of being satisfied with minimising cash burn

All airlines should should take charge of their own destiny now and do their utmost to maximise income now instead of hibernating the pandemic and hope for better times. Arilines have massive set costs in the form of either massive leases or fleets of owned assets that rots fast without regular maintence and use. Always remember airline seats spoils as fast as soft fruit. Todays potential income can't be earned in tomorrow instead. And if you can't fly people there is plenty of other stuff that needs transporting.  A christmas present sent from Irleand to Norway in mid November arrived yesterday the 24'th of February. That is over 3 months in the post. Another one sent the same day from Ireland to Greece came back today after the airline contunously refusing to freight it. That is a complete let down by most airlines of their previous commitments to bring post around contributing to a worldwide organized and fast postal service. Every time I bing Cargo up in diverse forums

Containerise loading freight into passenger cabins

We are now a year into the pandemic and its time to better organise the loading of freight into the cabins of passenger aircraft. There needs to be developed a container that can get in through the passenger door, or the emergency exit door opposite. Preferably in a bit less than 1/2 cabin width size, leaving space for passage down the middle. After all every airport have the equipment to load such containers, daily in use to load the wheeled carts that contains food, drink and duty free to be consumed and sold onboard. In practice they could be seen as small containers. One could also do with a track system that would be fastened to the mounting points normally used for seats, to easily move around and lock in place the cargo.  Maximum weight would be 5 passengers at 70kg each plus the weight of the seat lets say 50 kg wich give a maximum weight for each container of 400 kg. for a 3+4+3 seat width plane and 2 container wide. sample a 787 or A330. That should leave at least 350 kg for

Opportunities in Scandinavian long haul post Norwegian

With Norwegian gone from the Scandinavian long haul market, including its transatlantic connectivity through Gatwick, there should be growth opportunities for SAS. One will assume long haul will come strongly back if not end of 2021 so at least in 2022. And at least in the northern hemisphere markets will be full back by summer 2022. This gives opportunities for they who early prepares after the permanent exit of some airlines from long haul during the pandemic. SAS should now prepare for what it will do when this market returns. Now is when cheap(ish) deals for long haul aircraft can be made for they with a plan, and guts. Insted of going for a strategy of highest prices retrievable with the short term lowering of capacity, one should seriously consider if more profit can't be obtained by increasing ones own capcity, therebye lowering prices slightly. For a payback in the form of increase in demand. In addition to avoid letting potential passengers leak to competitors stuffed with

Few european airlines have covered themselves with glory in times of a global pandemic

How many airline have ben supportive as governments around the world have tried to handle a worldwide pandemic crisis. Today KLM tried to force the retraction of the dutch governments demand of negative tests even for crew by threatening to stop all it's Transcontinental and even european flying that would demand a crew layover to not risk that a crewmember with a postitive test was left behind. A behaviour more akin to O'Leary trying to change tax hikes by dropping all routes from certain airports than a national airline having the word Royal in its name. Even coming with stories how they have to stop trans-shipping vaccines to countries in South America with tremendous Covid19 problems. Apart from the sudden concern over crew, that was lacking before, can't see why KLM couldn't operate flights with double, or treble or quarduple or whatever it takes, sets of crews so no crew leaves the plane or stays over and everybody comes back. To at least bring out the vaccines. M

Why can't Scandinavian airlines manage to do dedicated cargo flights in passenger planes

Virgin Atlantic got going with it already in March 2020 managing 4000 cargo only flights in the year.. And with the panemic continuing into 2021 they are regularising the service offering 33 flights per week. Why haven't Norwegian managed do even 1, instead parking the whole fleet of 787 's resulting in its complete demise. Did they fall foul of internal resources with an all is difficult attitude. That didn't see how the new cargo market differentiated from that of previous.  Why haven't SAS managed to take advantage of the booming cargo only flight market due to the lack of passenger flights to send cargo with. They do have a sizeable cargo division with a precense in many locations and all the wide body containerised capcity that was needed. Even planes that was being retired/scrapped where seats could have been stripped for extra capacity and nobody would care about some extra cosmetic damage. All they lacked was vision, fantasy and a can-do mentality. Both airlines

The fleet of SAS have to many elements in each group

Scandinavian Airline Systems have 3 types of long haul aircraft, 2 types of regional and no less than 6 types of short haul medium size aircraf in their fleets. I know SAS has historically been able to sell used aircraft for more than they bought them due to being early on new types and moving on quickly, but that is many years ago now. Low cost competitors have gone for single type and big orders. Ryanair 's fleet of 340 aircraft are all Boeing 737-800's. Even though SAS is a full service (somewhat) network airline of the hub and spoke model a certain reduction in fleet disparity can only be good. Who these days adjust the aircraft used exactly to load instead of adjusting price to fill the seats available.   Let's take long haul first. A330, A340 and A350. Simple choice. Everybody is getting writh of the 4 engine A340. And SAS have now got the last out of operation. If the market is light and SAS could ramp up cargo maybe a couple of cargo conversions could have been in o

Management and chums landgrab for a quick Norwegian profit

Accepting the plan for the future Norwegian maangment announced today 14/1-2021 is something creditors and leaseowners should think more than twice about. The key is in the details and the plan for 50 planes now but a rapid expansion to 70 already in 2022 is akin to a landgrab by management and a an asembled consortium of larger new shareholders. Meaning they under-size now before the vaccines has nullified the pandemic and then expand rapidly with significantly better lease deals as the markets recover. Another key sign is that only a very small amount of new shares are available to existing shareholders. If it awas all above board wouldn't they be given a fare share. The difference now is that its not up for another shareowner vote so in reality its a free for all for managment and whoever they are mixed in with. Next year, if profitable, and I can't see why covering maybe a 80% market with a 50% fleetsize, its time for big bonuses to top management and a rapid rice for the s

The failure of SAS to expand cargo in Scandinavia in a pandemic

The numbers SAS released in December 2020 reveal only 3/5 cargo income in 2020 compared to 2019. That is 700 million lost and probably a lot more since the potential has shot up.  This is leading one to believe SAS could have done a lot more and that the company haven't taken advantage of what ever they could make money on in the pandemic market. Using the assets they are locked into and are paying for. And this failure of flexibility is ultimately the fault of the CEO Gustafson.  Lack of aggressive local suppliers could be the reason Middle Eastern carriers now is moving into the Scandinavian Cargo market. And once they are in they could be difficult to dislocate. Remember exporters are not as sentimental with what airline they pick as local politicians with their travel expenses refunded by the taxpayer, ref some mayors boycott of Wizz.  One can also see from the numbers how having the actual flying of ones regional network outsourced lead to lack of flexibility in time of crisis

Scandinavian airline looking for a new figurehead

Gustafson in SAS has taken his hat and gone, to a different kind of business all together.  He has been controversial in recent years, How he received significant bonuses after getting other employes to reduce their renumeration packages in recent crisis did not help SAS when pilots went on strike a couple of years ago.  Maybe his greed got the better of him and he foresaw that for the coming years his performance bonuses would not mount up to much. Specially since most airline have negotiated multiyear CoVid19 reductions in the pay of staff and therefore will have problems restoring senior managment perks faster or significantly higher in this period. His share options and other renumeration schemes is also probably solidly underwater after the refinancing SAS went through in 2020. Resulting in any financial loss by leaving would be minimized.   What should SAS look for in their next leader.  First someone who can him/herself show moderation and not only demand it from others.  Somebo

Is the plan still the plan if you hear nothing more.

It's a Norwegian trait that if you say you are going to do something that is the plan until you hear something different.  In sample Ireland a plan has to be reconfirmed and preferably every day until it happens or else everone assumes its cancelled. Back last spring Norwegian said they where hibernating their longhaul until March 2021. One would think that after such a long hibernation an official declaration would be made if this was still the plan 9 months later. But not Norwegian. They have started selling longhaul seats both out of London Gatwick and Paris and probably other permutations if you want to check:  Norwegian destinations from Gatwick   However there is no rumour about them having started retraining their 787 pilots at neither London Gatwick nor in Paris. They proably have kept some 787 hopefully training pilots current to do ferry flights. Some of the Dreamliners have gone to Shannon and back to leasers to go to new customers. But its not a good sign if some more s

Is the airlines hope for a vaccine certificate well thought through

Airlines is hoping a demand for certificate of vaccination for passengers will free up the travel world so people again can fly freely. Ryanair even advertising jab to fly. There are a couple of flies in the oinkment. With more than 7 billion people in the world and wealth extremely unevenly spread, at some stage there will be a cry for fairer distribution of the vaccines produced.  Several countries are already talking about not vaccinating people under 45 with no underlying health issue. We don't want fighting in the queue among all the others because airlines demand vaccination and eager travellers getting in front of they for whom the jab might mean the difference between actual life and death. As in contrast to just the financial health of the travel industry but not actual death for its owners and employers. There are certainly enough squabbling in the queue already with policeforces trying to get vaccinated before the nurses, fishermen before the elderly and doctors grabbing

Where did it all go wrong for Norwegian and what now

There is the overambitious expansion and desire to play in the big league with big orders for brand new planes, of several different types no less. But others have gone big and succeeded, but maybe not so much in the airline industry that is plagued with protection from your creditors and financial rescues. The transition from the enthusiastic well liked entrepenour to the next CEO is important for most companies. It usually happens because the founder have got out of his depth, or simple become to old. In Norwegian Kjos flew a bit too close to the sun . There is also that the airline was built on a belief of continually better market conditions and no savings for a rainy day. So did they choose an individual with a lot of airline experience and a lot of usefull contacts that could come in with own ideas and change things around from day 1. Not at all. They chose somebody that first spent 3 months learning before he took the reins. And then speculated for another 3 months on how he cou