Airlines in a Crisis

What is Norwegian doing. They have only managed to fly 10% of the number they flew last year. Ryanair on the other hand have flown 50% on 2/3 of the amount of flights they flew last year. That is about 72% of seats on every flight sold compared to 97% for same period last year. This lead to that Ryanair had no problem getting in an extra 400 million cash from sale of new shares. This is about twice what Norwegian says they need to get through the next 6 months. But who is going to invest in a company that already this year have burnt their shareholders. In fact a  company that has made a habit of doing it nearly every year. Not without getting in some new brooms rather than the one that after just a few months in the job abandoned them alltogether. Fact is in the airplane business there is always some crisis going. 9/11, oil price above USD 100 and whole fleets grounded. One can't just hibernate and wait them out but need to produce whatever one can no matter what the circums...

When it comes to utilizing the constantly changing nature of the CoVid19 crisis travel advices from diverce governments, startup airlines have a unique opportunity to take advantage. Where others are large and slow you will be small and flexible. As some pairings close others opens up. People are just booking short time out anyway so you don't have to publish a 6 month schedule. Many airlines take a week or 2 to react to government advisory changes. You should have it ready for booking by tomorrow. In addition most customer charter rules are temporarily suspended or not enforced so a 2 or even 1 week cancelling policy should be envoked. Cancel, refund and move your resources to a different route. As a new airline you are not lumbered with bookings done months ago that you want to fly to avoid refunding because you have spent the cash from them on paying for unused planes and other fixed costs.

Many politicians in charge around the world are showing signs of CoVid19 fatigue. The number of previously daily press conferences are dwindling. Figures for the new infections and deaths are no longer daily. Less happens during the weekend. And the press are following suit. No longer are updates headline or given the most prominent space on the frontpages. But is that enough to un-scare the populations of these countries. Make them believe the immediate danger is really over even though they for months have been touted that this will take years until either a vaccine is implemented or enough of us are immune. Neither of which have happened, anywhere. And still the numbers for infected and new deaths are going up reaching ever higher daily numbers. Even in countries/states whit increasing numbers there seems to be a reluctance against new lockdowns with politicians only heeding positive results, ignoring negative and now following in many cases constructed re-infect rate numbers with...

What some fresh airline ceo's with no relevant airline background don't seem to get is that airplane seats are fresh produce. When the plane have taken off the unsold seats are no longer sellable so spoilt. Actually even 2 hours before it takes off. That is why hibernation is a bad solution for an airline. You can hibernate the planes, at a cost, but not the potential seat kilometers those planes could have produced. Every day you have a potential for selling so and so many seats based on your resources available and they largely need to be sold before the day begins. It's like preselling strawberries you haven't picked yet. Every day you know there will be so and so many to sell and by the end of the day they are spoilt and thrown out. Even though fruit and veg are easier because some can be sold on sale tomorrow and in worst case sold as animal feed thereafter. Seats not sold and routes not flown, and where the plane haven't been utilized elsewhere, have no valu...

Take the analogy of going for a walk and you meet people that don't care about social distancing. You just know that if they are careless when you meet them they will be just as careless in other aspects of dealing with the spread.  Always choose a route where you are the one that controls the distance. Always choose an airline that has taken more precautions than the absolute minimum that won't cost them much. Smart travellers will make up their mind about what amount of precautions is necessary and will choose an airline that supplys them. However I'm not saying an airline, even a low fares one, couldn't cater for both. Instead of a class divider curtain they could have a CoVid19 precaution divider curtain. In front you get free middle seats, cleaning of toilets between each customer and cleaning of cabin between each flight. Behind, for a bit less money, you get nightly cleaning and shared armrests.

If your airline continues an albeit limited trolley service in CoVid19 times, it is important that your staff don't become super spreaders. They should of course wear masks and gloves. But the gloves  should also be cleanable so they can be treated with hand sanitizer between each customer. This hinders immediate transfers of viruses from the card/cash of one customer to the items of the next. Remember that virus stays alive for minutes on skin, hours on clothes but days on hard surfaces. In general, if you are doing to much with your hands to clean them constantly, just wear gloves and clean them. The same goes for they who are allergic to cleaning stuff or get sores from washing their hands to often.

Some airlines see their strict adherence to social distancing as a marketing opportunity. Promising doubting passengers that they won't be seated within touching distance of somebody they don't know will attract people nervous about being infected in an environment they have little control over. https://simpleflying.com/jetblue-july-social-distancing/ This is the way to get more people up in the air. Not coming with unconfirmed swada about that nobody gets infected on an airplane just because it yet haven't been proven to the full extent of the law. If airline executivess really think their Hepa filtered airconditioning systems are so excellent in stopping all contamination would they approve if pubs and all other indoor crowded spaces also just demanded masks and turned their airconditioning up. They also suffer economically if they can't stuff people in to the degree they did before.

Let's take som quick math to Ryanair's O'Leary's claims that middle seat free is unsustainable. According to the Ryanair results presentation their average fare is 37 euro. Add 50% and it becomes 55.5 Still below Easyjet's current of 59 according to the same presentation. Will an extra 18 euro 50 cents really stop people from flying if it means they could be safer from viruses. It seems more of a pshycological problem for top brass rather than for any real economic reason, that airlines think they should be excempt from the physical distancing that every other business have to put up with. Some will always persist on squezing the last of capacity out of both materiel and staff, even at the cost of suffering, for others. The only thing a temporry 50% rise in ticket prices put an end to is O'Leary's plans about releasing a rush of Low Fares to get further market share from competitors, as long as they don't do just the same with borrowed money. I am su...