Is the airlines hope for a vaccine certificate well thought through

Airlines is hoping a demand for certificate of vaccination for passengers will free up the travel world so people again can fly freely. Ryanair even advertising jab to fly. There are a couple of flies in the oinkment. With more than 7 billion people in the world and wealth extremely unevenly spread, at some stage there will be a cry for fairer distribution of the vaccines produced. 

Several countries are already talking about not vaccinating people under 45 with no underlying health issue. We don't want fighting in the queue among all the others because airlines demand vaccination and eager travellers getting in front of they for whom the jab might mean the difference between actual life and death. As in contrast to just the financial health of the travel industry but not actual death for its owners and employers. There are certainly enough squabbling in the queue already with policeforces trying to get vaccinated before the nurses, fishermen before the elderly and doctors grabbing doses for themselves that were meant to go to nursing home residents.

Its certain that limiting the flying public to residents of nursing homes, health related staff and other priority groups will not be enough to bring airlines into profit. No more than it did last summer when they where going for the market of they who didn't care. 

For they who rely on leisure travel the largest markets is late teens to early thirties. They who are least likely to be vaccinated at all. At least if governments around the world is not going to do a gigantic u-turn on that young people overvelmingly get CoVid19 light if symptoms at all. Then if you demand a vaccination cert from all your potential customers there will be a problem. 

Most likely the pandemic will run out of steam long before all is vaccinated. The general rule of thumb for all illnesses is 1/3 catch it, 1/3 are normally immune and 1/3 for some reason or another are not immune but don't catch it either. If it wasn't like that humanity would have been wiped out long ago. Therefore we are most likely to have a sharp decline in the coming months. And time of year does matter no matter what the specialists say or whether CoVid19 react to cold or heat. The last year has proven it. Whether its the difference in our behaviour during hot and cold seasons or if its faster burnt of door handles and other surfaces that get contaminated. Or we are simply more out and about. That way it behaves not much different from the seasonal flues.

Conclusion, the whole demand vaccine to fly is a no-go. By the time they get the bureaucratic paperwork ready across borders it will all be over.