Is this the time to start an airline
It's not a crash / downturn / new normal for a business started now. They don't have a lot of parked planes they have to pay for or staff costs for people that have nothing to do, or now massively oversized other fixed costs for an airline 4 times what they are flying. Their start out cost base will be where other airlines are trying to get to through negotiating pay and lease reductions.
And what for established airlines will just be a (partial) future return to normal will for them be a giant upswing.
Add in a bit of what others can't do because it isn't like it used to be and you could be on to a winner. Something for CoVid19 times like optional social distancing through middle seat free. Flexible changes instead of outright refunds. Remember they don't have a massive presale either of seats that may or may not be taken up, so they should now that they who book now knows the pandemic story.
New airlines now have a massive selection of used and new planes from cancelled leases and newbuild contracts from both the Boeing and Airbus stables. Many leasing companies have been burnt by airlines and forced to take massively lowered rentals or payment not in cash but all in airline shares like the Norwegian deal. Be sure they would be very happy to shift their planes elsewhere to show that if you don't pay you don't keep.
And many pilots have been forced to take cuts in both pay and t&c's, had their work hours reduced or been straight out laid off or put on long term leave. There is a good selection of fully trained staff just waiting to jump ship to anything that pays. After all anything better than stacking shelves in a supermarket.
It is probably the same with backroom staff since some airlines have cut their pay with 50% also. Offer 75% and you are in business. Your cost base is then already lower than your competitors will be in a couple of years. You will want a high staff turnover for non key positions anyway to take advantage of constantly hiring new people on lower salaries than they who have had several years of pay rises.
You will also be the only airline that haven't scared off many potential customers by not having issued refunds within the legal timelines. Normally booking with startups aare a bigger risk, but not in the current market where everybody tries to calculate when most airlines will run out of cash and be technically bust. Many are already.
Never waste a (for you) good crisis (for others). You may however have to be flexible with your initial routings since your original plan may be tmporarily scuppered by market destroying quarantines.
And what for established airlines will just be a (partial) future return to normal will for them be a giant upswing.
Add in a bit of what others can't do because it isn't like it used to be and you could be on to a winner. Something for CoVid19 times like optional social distancing through middle seat free. Flexible changes instead of outright refunds. Remember they don't have a massive presale either of seats that may or may not be taken up, so they should now that they who book now knows the pandemic story.
New airlines now have a massive selection of used and new planes from cancelled leases and newbuild contracts from both the Boeing and Airbus stables. Many leasing companies have been burnt by airlines and forced to take massively lowered rentals or payment not in cash but all in airline shares like the Norwegian deal. Be sure they would be very happy to shift their planes elsewhere to show that if you don't pay you don't keep.
And many pilots have been forced to take cuts in both pay and t&c's, had their work hours reduced or been straight out laid off or put on long term leave. There is a good selection of fully trained staff just waiting to jump ship to anything that pays. After all anything better than stacking shelves in a supermarket.
It is probably the same with backroom staff since some airlines have cut their pay with 50% also. Offer 75% and you are in business. Your cost base is then already lower than your competitors will be in a couple of years. You will want a high staff turnover for non key positions anyway to take advantage of constantly hiring new people on lower salaries than they who have had several years of pay rises.
You will also be the only airline that haven't scared off many potential customers by not having issued refunds within the legal timelines. Normally booking with startups aare a bigger risk, but not in the current market where everybody tries to calculate when most airlines will run out of cash and be technically bust. Many are already.
Never waste a (for you) good crisis (for others). You may however have to be flexible with your initial routings since your original plan may be tmporarily scuppered by market destroying quarantines.
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